First Principles

On history, economics, philosophy & the written word

The Bronze Age Collapse and the Fragility of Complex Societies

Around 1200 BCE, almost every major civilization in the Eastern Mediterranean disintegrated within a few decades. Palatial economies vanished. Writing systems were forgotten. What happened — and what it might tell us about our own moment — remains one of history's most compelling open questions.

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Why Rome Fell: A Question We Keep Getting Wrong

Edward Gibbon blamed Christianity. Modern historians blame lead pipes, climate, or fiscal crisis. The real answer is probably all of the above — and that complexity is precisely the point. Monocausal explanations of the fall of Rome reveal more about the explainer than the thing explained.

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The Black Death and the Birth of the Modern Wage

The plague killed a third of Europe — and inadvertently ended serfdom. When labour became scarce, peasants could finally bargain. The catastrophe that the medieval world experienced as divine punishment turned out to be, in economic terms, an enormous transfer of power from landlords to workers.

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